Californians shifting to Arizona could Upend the 2024 Elections.


Things are looking skeptical in one of the most prominent nations of the United States as the elections are coming closer. According to the state-to-state migration list released by the US census, the number of Californians moving to Texas is much less than those moving to Arizona. 

Arizona is where Joe Biden took over Donald Trump with some 10,000 votes in 2020. However, a mass shift from California has been observed in recent years. But the numbers shifting to Arizona was 69000 in 2021, while it rose to beyond 75000 in the following year. 

With so many transfers taking place, it is a question of whether the migrants are the Americans who will bring liberal ideologies or are those who are leaving their progressive beliefs behind. Republican Strategist Alex Patton said that razor-thin margins in swing states matter greatly. At the same time, there is no proper demographic record about what type of Californians are moving out of the place. But it is a thing of research and must be investigated very quickly. 

After Georgia, Arizona was the second closest state in the previous presidential elections. Biden’s victory from Arizona marked him the second Democratic presidential nominee who carried the state after Bill Clinton in 1992.

Paul Bentz, senior vice president of research in Arizona, said that it is likely for the presidential elections to go through Arizona in 2024 instead of through Florida or Ohio. Democrats have made significant gains in Arizona since the last elections, with Katie Hobbs winning the governorship during the midterms and Senator Mark Kelly winning the reelections.

While those stats suggest that Arizona has become a welcoming home for left-leaning Californians, Bentz stated that it would depend on which ex-Californian comes to The Grand Canyon State.

GOP Strategist Matt Klink believes that while most people are leaving California to escape the liberal policies of the state, Arizona is more a unique outlier location due to the recent democratic wins. Political Consultant Jay Townsend says that despite the possibility that these new immigrants could sway Arizona more Republican or Democrat, there is a higher chance that they present a better opportunity to both parties.

Fewer than those who are migrating to Arizona since 2020 have joined either of the parties. Townsend further said that most individuals who have relocated since 2016 are independent or nonpartisan. One can say that the swing voters are the fastest-growing party in Arizona. 

Independents make up the most significant political group in entire Arizona. According to a recent political or voter survey of Arizona, it has been observed that 34.6 percent of the population is affiliated as “other” compared to 34.4 percent who are identified as “Republican” and 30 percent who are identified as “Democrats.” 

Bentz further stated that the age of the new individuals shifting to Arizona would also change the demographics of the voters in the state. The Arizonian democratic party is more dependent on the senior votes, many of whom will disappear from the universe in the next decade. 

But, it is noteworthy that most of the migrants to Arizona are not senior voters. The younger Americans who look forward to the economic opportunities in the booming semiconductor industry of Arizona are also shifting to the state. There are also individuals seeking lower house costs, and they grow their families. 

The economy of Arizona is changing with the growth of high-tech jobs. Norrander, a political science professor at Arizona University, states that Arizona resembles Texas, which remains the Number 1 destination for Californians who look to shift to other states. But Arizona has one added benefit of being near the Golden State. It becomes more accessible for the ex-Californians to visit their friends and family who reside in the Golden State of the US.

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